Fire ExiaTier 2
at 貓腳印松江店 地區賽 Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.2% | 22 | 14-6-2 | 68.2% | 65.4% | 62.2% | +4.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 41.9% | -4.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.6% | +2.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.4% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 30.3% | -12.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.7% | -12.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 68.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 68.7% | +14.0 |
| Fire Suited | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.5% | +7.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.7% | +4.5 |
| Wind Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.8% | -0.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Water Genbu | 1.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.5% | -6.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 25.5% | -23.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.1% | +24.2 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +5.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regenerate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wrathful Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Sunder | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annihilation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |